Yes, it's only January 20, but after blowing a second-half lead on the road, the Oklahoma Sooners are in serious trouble.
Coach Jeff Capel's team lost more than a Big 12 South basketball battle on Tuesday night in College Station, Tex. The OU crew lost any remaining margin for error in its pursuit of an at-large berth for the NCAA Tournament.
Oklahoma led, 54-47, with 10:15 remaining in this incredibly important encounter. That seven-point lead needed to be treated with the reverence due the holy grail, because this was a game the Sooners simply couldn't afford to lose. When the Aggies - bolstered by a raucous crowd at Reed Arena - rallied for a three-point win, the reality of the Big 12's postseason calculus changed considerably.
First, it's worth noting how the home team prevailed in this revealing and rousing affair. A&M's backcourt tandem of Donald Sloan and Dash Harris scored 13 of the Aggies' last 17 points, reviving a flatlining offense in the home stretch. After going 7 minutes and 33 seconds without a field goal midway through the second half, the Sloan-Harris law firm - with their team's fortunes rapidly declining - restored order for Aggie coach Mark Turgeon. When Harris scored five quick points, three of them on a long-range bomb with 1:19 left, the Aggies snared their first lead since the 14:09 mark of the second half. OU's Willie Warren briefly gave the Sooners a 62-61 lead with a pair of free throws at the 46-second mark of regulation, but Sloan stuck a clutch jumper with 32 seconds remaining to put A&M in front for good. OU's Tommy Mason-Griffin couldn't nail a jump shot with four seconds left, and when Sloan grabbed the rebound, the deed was done. Oklahoma suffered a severe wound on a night when the Sooners needed to jab a dagger in A&M's side.
One could say that it's not too early to panic; with almost two full months of basketball still left before Selection Sunday, OU can't lament its current situation. With that having been said, it's not inappropriate or irrational or in any way imprudent to underscore the extent to which the Sooners are in jeopardy of going to the NIT.
For one thing, Oklahoma lost too many games in the non-conference portion of its schedule. Wins over Arkansas, Arizona and Utah are nice, but none of those opponents will significantly bolster an RPI rating. OU's losses - to Virginia Commonwealth, San Diego and Houston - offer far more cause for alarm. Since Capel's club didn't pick off Gonzaga, there simply aren't a lot of positives on the Sooners' resume.
What this loss did was drive a clear line of separation between the losing Sooners and the winning Aggies. A&M doesn't have a tournament berth safely tucked in its pocket. Turgeon's team could certainly lose a tourney ticket over the next several weeks. However, the Aggies currently have the heft on their portfolio that will make them feel better in the middle of March. A&M beat Clemson and Minnesota in November's 76 Classic Tournament in Anaheim, Calif. The Aggies scheduled tough opponents and don't have a really bad loss on their ledger. In a Big 12 that currently possesses three top-10 teams (Texas, Kansas, Kansas State) and has Baylor and Missouri sitting in excellent shape, this OU-A&M throwdown represented a timely tryout, if you will, for the league's sixth entrant in the NCAAs. A&M - which already had the better resume going in - now has a head-to-head scalp after Tuesday's victory.
Yes, this should explain why OU is in such dire straits.
The Sooners must split with Texas - it's not even a debate there - and must also split their remaining games with Kansas and Kansas State just to get into the NCAA Tournament discussion. On top of those two feats, OU will have to win every other home game and pick off at least one decent road win in order to bolster its chances when the field of 65 is announced.
Time to buck up if you're an Oklahoma basketballer. There's a lot of work to do for the Sooners in the coming weeks.