Storm Warning

By Big12-Fans Writer Mike Archiopoli

You have to hand it to Iowa State coach Dan McCarney and his Cyclones. They came into 2005 as a fashionable pick for the Big XII North title. And coming off a 7-5 finish in 2004, there was every reason to buy into the pre-season hype. They even opened the season 3-0, including a huge home win over dark horse national title contender Iowa, then the rain came. The then-23rd ranked Cyclones traveled down to Lincoln to face Nebraska and lost a double overtime thriller. That loss was followed up by a HOME loss to the Baylor Bears. Though improved this season, it was the Bears first Big XII road victory since the inception of the conference. And then to top it all off they lost a second overtime game to Missouri, dropping their record to 3-3 (0-3 in conference).

At this point, their once promising season was now a memory to most, as they sank to the bottom of the conference standings. Yet, where most teams continue a downward spiral after 3 crushing losses and expectations gone awry, Iowa State put their foot down. Their turnaround began innocently with a 37-10 home win against conference doormat Oklahoma State. Then they really opened some eyes with a 42-14 win in College Station against Texas A&M. The exclamation point came Saturday when they blasted Kansas State 45-17. Now sitting at 6-3 with a 3-3 conference record, Iowa State once again has something to play for.

The reasons for the turnaround are clear; the players who were expected to lead the charge this season are finally stepping up. In the past three games sophomore QB Bret Meyer has thrown for 792 yards on 65.3% passing, resulting in 8 touchdown passes with zero interceptions. Contrast that to the first six games when he threw only 5 touchdown passes to 7 interceptions. Obviously any time a quarterback gets humming, the rest of the offense is right along with him. Not so coincidentally fellow sophomore, WR Todd Blythe has begun to come alive. In those same three games Blythe has caught 14 passes for 368 yards and 5 touchdowns. While those numbers don’t exactly jump off the page, the numbers are greater than the 333 yards and 1 touchdown he put up in the previous six games. You also can’t forget Stevie Hicks; the junior running back had been sidelined by injury for most of the Nebraska game and all of the Baylor, Missouri, and Oklahoma State games. But, he has come back with vengeance in the previous two victories, tallying 271 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground. These young offensive stars were part of the reason Iowa State had any pre-season hype to begin with, and not surprisingly the rest of the team has begun to click as they have finally hit their stride. Offensively, the Cyclones will only go as far as their triplets are able to carry them.

Heading into the final two weeks of the season, Iowa State again has a chance to make a major splash in the conference, and has an outside shot at the North title. To win a spot in the conference championship game the Cyclones would need to win out, have Colorado lose out, and hope Missouri loses one more game. While this is not the most likely of scenarios, Iowa State can still prove a lot the rest of the way. Colorado, the current North leader comes to Ames next weekend in what should be one of the more intriguing games of the November 12th slate. The Buffs have asserted themselves atop the North with a 7-2 record (5-1 conference); with their only 2 losses coming against top five Texas and Miami. Yet, I don’t think that any Colorado fan looks at this game as a walk. In fact, outside of their two losses this should prove to be their most challenging game of the season. The following week Iowa State travels to Lawrence to face bowl hungry Kansas. Barring the minor miracle of a victory over second ranked Texas, the Jayhawks will be coming into the final game of their season needing only a win against Iowa State to take them to only their second bowl since 1995.

Both of these final two contests will be a major challenge for the Cyclones, but it seems to be a challenge they are up to. I see Colorado coming to town next week and leaving with its second conference loss of the season. While Colorado has been tough this season, they are facing Iowa State at just the wrong time; McCarney’s bunch should pull out a narrow victory at home in a mild upset. Colorado has suffered their only two losses on the road, and didn’t look particularly strong against Kansas State in Manhattan. Neither fact bodes well for a tough road game this weekend. Iowa State should then go into Lawrence as a 7-3 team and leave with another hard fought victory against one of the toughest defenses in the nation. But Kansas made me look foolish last weekend by crushing Nebraska for the first time since 1968, so never say never (you think I would have learned by now after writing about how talented their defense is, I haven't). Even if Iowa State wins out, Colorado will probably finish the season with a win over Nebraska and take the North title for the second consecutive year.

Regardless of the finish Iowa State should be commended. Many thought they were dead and buried after three straight losses. Instead, they have turned their season around and have secured at least a bowl bid for the second straight year. If they can finish with an 8-3 record (as projected here), they will once again head into the off-season with big expectations for the next season. With Meyer, Blythe, Hicks all returning next season, this will be a team to watch out for in 2006. The major question is if they can handle the pressure. In the past 4 seasons, any time attention starts to focus on Iowa State they crumble. In 2004 they went into a home game with Missouri with a shot at the North title and lost in overtime. In 2002, they collapsed to a 6-7 record after starting 6-1. With success comes expectation, and in the final 2 games of 2005 and into 2006, expectation is back on Iowa State.

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