Kansas @ Texas Preview - Big12-fans.com

By Big12-Fans Writer Jeff Borzello


If you had told me on January 16th that the Kansas-Texas battle in late February would decide the regular-season title, I would’ve laughed at you. The Jayhawks were 9-6 overall and 1-2 in the conference, coming off back-to-back losses to Kansas State and Missouri. The Longhorns, on the other hand, were rolling along on a 6-game winning streak that included wins over Memphis and Villanova. They looked like they were going to run away with the Big 12. However, five weeks later, these two teams are tied atop the conference at 11-2. While most conferences either have a clear-cut winner (ACC) or several teams muddled at the top (Big Ten, Pac-10), the Big 12 has a winner-take-all contest between the two best teams in the conference. Moreover, this could be a preview of the Big 12 Tournament championship game.

Kansas is currently one of the hottest teams in the country, having won 10 in a row and 17 of their last 19. They are a very young team whose youth has developed into a well-rounded collection of players that can beat you from any position. The Jayhawks are a terrific defensive team. They lead the country in field-goal percentage defense and are second in the Big 12 in scoring defense. Moreover, they have the most efficient defensive team in the country, according to Ken Pomeroy. KU is ranked in the Top 20 nationally in rebounds (8th), blocks (17th) and steals (19th) per game. Kansas, ranked 42nd in the RPI, also has an improving offense. While they don’t have a true go-to-guy, there are several players that can score if necessary. KU shares the ball, ranking 4th in the nation in assists per game. The Jayhawks have scored under 70 points only four times since conference play began. They don’t get blown out and can dominate a game if they are hitting on all cylinders.

Texas, meanwhile, has looked less-than-impressive lately. After winning 14 of 15, the Longhorns got blown out by an Oklahoma State team that is 4-9 in the Big 12 and then escaped against Kansas State by one. The Longhorns might have the most talent in the country outside of Connecticut, and are a legit Final Four contender. Their offense is one of the most dangerous in the nation. They lead the NCAA in scoring margin and have several players that can takeover a game. According to Ken Pomeroy, they are the 5th-most efficient offensive team in the country. Texas is also second in the Big 12 in scoring offense. Defensively, the Longhorns also have the ability shut down a team. They are 3rd in the country in field-goal percentage defense and have the 4th-most efficient defense. Due to their depth and talent in the frontcourt, they can wear you down inside. They have allowed over 70 points only twice in conference play, and lead the conference in scoring defense. Additionally, they are third in the country in rebounding margin. One of the only negatives of this team, at least according to stats, is the way they lose. Their four losses have all been by double-figures and have been by an average of almost 20 points per game. The Longhorns either blow out a team or get blown out. Only three games this season have been decided by 8 points or less.

Kansas has some of the best young talent in the country, and the deep Jayhawks have several players that can produce on any given night. It starts on the perimeter. Brandon Rush (14.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 2.3 apg, 51% 3pt) is developing into one of the top freshmen in the nation. He has begun to become more aggressive offensively, which has made the Jayhawks much better. Rush is an excellent outside shooter who can drive to the basket. He also has the ability to be a very good defensive player. The guard trio of freshman Mario Chalmers (10.7 ppg, 4.0 apg, 2.6 spg), sophomore Russell Robinson (8.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 4.0 apg, 2.1 spg), and senior Jeff Hawkins (4.8 ppg, 2.5 apg, 40% 3pt) has been integral to the turnaround that the Jayhawks have underwent. Chalmers has improved drastically as the season has progressed, and is now one of the best freshmen in the country. He is a very good scorer and distributor who is also a lock-down defender. Robinson has developed into a defensive stopper in charge of guarding the opponents’ best perimeter scorer. Offensively, he is a solid scorer and a very good passer. Hawkins provides leadership and all-around production off the bench. Up front, Kansas has a group of players that, while not stars, are very capable of producing. Sasha Kaun’s numbers (8.5 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 1.1 bpg) have fallen off somewhat since the start of conference play, but he is still a very good rebounder and defender. C.J. Giles (6.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.6 bpg) has a lot of potential down low, and can change the momentum of the game with his ability to dunk and block shots. Darnell Jackson (7.1 ppg, 5.2 rpg) became eligible after nine games and has had a major impact for the Jayhawks. He is a very good rebounder and defender who provides another big body in the post. Christian Moody (4.0 ppg, 3.2 rpg) is a solid role player who never stops working and always finds a way to get a put-back or a rebound. The most talented of the group is the team’s x-factor, Julian Wright (8.3 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.3 bpg). He can play any position in the frontcourt, and is a matchup problem due to his athleticism and versatility. Wright can post-up, has a nice mid-range game, and can score going to the basket and in transition.

Texas is loaded, to say the least. They have All-Conference players at four positions, including two legit All-American candidates, and several other very solid role players. The Longhorns start with arguably the best frontcourt in the nation. LaMarcus Aldridge (15.9 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 1.4 spg, 2.0 bpg, 60% fg) has been one of the best centers in the country throughout the entire season. He has shown the ability to take over a game down low. If he doesn’t get into foul trouble, he is very difficult to stop. His partner in the post, Brad Buckman (10.7 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 1.8 bpg), is an underrated forward. He has a nice touch in the mid-range game and is a bruiser on the block. Rounding out the frontcourt is P.J. Tucker (16.3 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.8 spg). He is difficult match-up. At 6-5, he is too quick for bigger forwards, but is much too strong for lanky wings. Tucker might be the toughest offensive player in the country to stop when he is getting touches down low. In the backcourt, Daniel Gibson (14.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.0 apg, 1.3 spg) is one of the top guards in the nation. He is a very good shooter and is a solid distributor. He can get into the lane against most defenders. Gibson started out at the point earlier in the season, but switched to the wing after a couple of turnover-filled games. At the lead-guard spot, several players split time. The starter is Kenton Paulino (9.8 ppg, 3.4 apg, 43% 3pt). He started out on the wing, but switched with Gibson midway through the non-conference season. He controls the pace well, and can hit the three consistently. Freshman A.J. Abrams (5.5 ppg, 2.7 apg) is a solid combo guard that sees time in the backcourt, as does sparingly-used J.D. Lewis (2.5 ppg). Depth up front comes mainly from Mike Williams (2.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg), who is an excellent rebounder and is athletic and versatile. Connor Atchley (2.7 ppg), who can score from inside and outside, also sees minutes up front.

This Big 12 battle should be a tight game from start to finish, and should be a preview of the Big 12 Tournament championship game in a few weeks. Immediately, one noticed the considerable advantage Texas is going to have in the paint. LaMarcus Aldridge should dominate Sasha Kaun, C.J. Giles, etc. However, P.J. Tucker might have not his usual edge at the SF position. Julian Wright can defend pretty much any position, and his strength and athleticism could cause Tucker problems. In the backcourt, Kansas has the edge. Brandon Rush has developed into one of the best players in the conference, while Mario Chalmers and Russell Robinson are a very good guard duo that distributes the ball well and plays excellent defense. If Chalmers can defend Daniel Gibson, and Robinson does not allow Kenton Paulino to have one of his seemingly random big games, Texas is going to become one-dimensional. On the other hand, I can see Tucker forcing Rush into a tough game, due to his physicality and strength. In the end, Aldridge is going to be the difference. Texas’ frontcourt is too much for the young Jayhawks’ frontline, while the homecourt advantage and the edge in experience will also go in the Longhorns’ favor. However, don’t be surprised to see Kansas take this game come March 12th.