Sorry Big 12, You're Even Worse than the SEC

By Big12-Fans Writer Jeff Borzello


Does anyone in the Big 12 want an NCAA Tournament bid?

Other than Texas and Baylor, the aforementioned question could be asked to every team in the Big 12. Pretty much everyone knows that this conference is going to get four or five bids come March, but there is not one team besides Texas that has demonstrated the ability to be an NCAA Tournament team. Teams 2-11 all have a shot at a bid, but none of them are locks, or even close to be a lock, at this point.

Every potential NCAA contender has a myriad of flaws on their resume, and no one’s profile is overly impressive. Five teams have RPIs of at least 100, and only four teams are in the RPI Top 40. They may have the 3rd-best winning percentage of any conference in the country, but that could have to do with the fact that Big 12 clubs played a total of 20 teams with an RPI of below 290. That doesn’t add anything to an NCAA resume, and does not really astound the Selection Committee. Quality wins are what makes or breaks one’s Selection Sunday fate, and the Big 12 simply does not have an abundance of quality wins. Take out Texas’ wins over Iowa, West Virginia, Villanova, and Memphis, and the five best wins in the conference are: Tennessee (Oklahoma State), Northern Iowa (Iowa State), Iowa (Iowa State), Kentucky (Kansas), and, um, Marquette (Nebraska)? Colorado State (Kansas State, Iowa State)? Northwestern State (Missouri, Texas A&M, Iowa State)? To take it a step further, take away Iowa State and it gets even uglier. When you can’t find five truly quality wins within an entire conference, it says something about the league. It sounds something like “Teams better start separating themselves or your league is getting three bids.”

Right now, Texas is 3-0 and Baylor is 0-3. Everyone else is within 2 games of each other. That’s no recipe for multiple bids. Let’s start at the top. Missouri is 3-1 in the conference, but only 10-5 overall. Their best non-conference win is a home victory against Northwestern State, and they have a bad loss to Sam Houston State. The #83 RPI needs to improve and they need to go at least 11-5 or 12-4 in Big 12 play with one or two very good road wins. Oklahoma State is 12-5 and 2-1 in the conference. They have an excellent win over Tennessee in their back pocket and they don’t have any bad losses. 10-6 or 11-5 in Big 12 play should get them in serious contention for a bid. Kansas looked to be in good shape going into last week, but lost to Kansas State and Missouri. Their RPI is in the 120s and they only have wins over Kentucky and Cal to hang their hat on. At 9-6 overall and 1-2 in the conference, the Jayhawks might have to finish along the lines of 11-2 the rest of the way to feel secure about their status. Oklahoma and Iowa State, despite their poor play lately, may be the most likely to get bids. That is simply because of their numbers. Both have RPIs in the 30s, and the Cyclones have a bevy of good wins, including Iowa and Northern Iowa. If ISU can go 9-3 the rest of the way, they will get in. As for Oklahoma, they have no quality non-conference wins besides a home victory over Alabama. If they win the games they are supposed to and pick up some decent road wins along the way, the Sooners will likely get a bid. The next group of teams has Colorado and Texas A&M. Both of these teams had stellar non-conference records, but each of them has also faltered since entering conference play. However, the best win for both teams was UNC-Wilmington and Auburn, respectively. Not particularly impressive, cupcake-eaters. These teams are going to have to go 12-4 or 11-5 in conference play to even have a chance to get a bid. They simply don’t have enough quality victories. Nebraska has a decent chance to receive an at-large bid as they played a relatively (compared to the rest of the Big 12) difficult schedule. If they clean up at home and steal 2 or 3 games on the road, the Cornhuskers may put themselves in position to get a bid. Kansas State and Texas Tech round out the conference. KSU started off the season very well, with wins over Colorado State and New Mexico. Since then, however, those two teams have fallen off the map, leaving Kansas State with absolutely no wins to hang their hat on. They recently picked up a road win at Kansas, and could use that win to propel them into at-large contention. On the other hand, Texas Tech started off very slowly, going 6-6. They have awful power numbers, and their best win is over…UTEP? If the Red Raiders don’t start winning on the road, they can kiss the NCAA Tournament goodbye.

It’s obvious—nearly every team in the conference has serious work to do in order to put themselves in a position to get an NCAA Tournament bid. The lack of quality wins throughout the conference is maddening. The ridiculous parity within the league also does not bode well for March. What you are likely to see at the end of the season is Texas at 15-1 or 16-0, two or three teams at 10-6/11-5, and then seven or eight teams between 6-10 and 9-7. The Tournament hopefuls are going to have to begin to separate themselves from the rest of the pack if they want to be recognized by the committee. The Selection Committee is looking at the Big 12 right now, like we see rodents fighting over scraps, they have four or five bids to throw at them, but up to 10 teams are going to be fighting over them until the second week of March. It should make for an exciting conference race (for a Top-5 finish, at least), but it won’t make for a successful Selection Sunday.

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