Contenders, Pretenders Starting to Separate Themselves

By Big12-Fans Writer Jeff Borzello


With the start of February here, that can only mean one thing: the stretch run of the college basketball season has arrived. The next five-plus weeks will be all about Selection Sunday, the infamous “bubble”, RPIs, quality wins, bad losses, etc. Every game counts from here on out—as if they haven’t already. In other words, it is time for teams to start building their NCAA Tournament profiles. When teams from the same conference are on the bubble, experts start discussing how many bids a specific conference is going to receive. If you listen to the Selection Committee, they don’t look at what conference the teams come from. They say that there is no specific limit on how many bids a conference will get. However, in order for a conference to get their maximum amount of bids, they need separation within the league. Take the Missouri Valley Conference, for example. There are four teams obviously above the rest of the league. Those four teams are near-locks for the NCAA Tournament. On the other hand, the Colonial Athletic Association may have more balance than the MVC, but they have six teams within two games of each other. The CAA is not likely to get an at-large bid. There needs to be separation between the haves and have-nots in a conference. The Big Ten has seven obvious teams worthy of NCAA consideration, while no one knows how many the Pac-10 will have come March. In other words, the Big Ten has separation; the Pac-10 does not.

A few weeks ago, I wrote an article regarding the Big 12 and their balance and parity. There was Texas in first, Baylor in last, and ten teams in an ugly, nondescript group. However, over the past three or four league games, the contenders and pretenders in the Big 12 have made moves. The contenders have been impressive and have begun their run to the NCAA Tournament, while the pretenders have played like wannabe-NIT squads. That bodes well for the Big 12 on Selection Sunday, as they are now in the running for 4-5 bids instead of the 3 that was thought about a few weeks back.

As far as contenders go, Texas has not been knocked off their perch as the team to beat in the Big 12, although they looked somewhat vulnerable this past weekend against Oklahoma. However, they obviously don’t have any type of chance to go undefeated, and they are now only one game in front of the Sooners, Colorado, and Kansas. One slip-up along the way, and they are in a dogfight for the conference title. The three aforementioned teams directly behind Texas are the ones really starting to demonstrate that they have what it takes to be an NCAA Tournament team. Oklahoma has won five in a row, including the victory over the Longhorns as well as a sweep of Texas A&M. They are only three points from behind undefeated in the Big 12. With an RPI of 19, the Sooners are pretty much a lock to get in the Big Dance. Kansas is improving more and more with each game. They have won 4 in a row and 11 of their 13. The last four victories have been by an average of 24 points per game. Brandon Rush is finally becoming the play we all thought he could be, while the defense is quietly developing into one of the best in the country. Their power numbers are a little low, but that should improve with more wins. Colorado is the fourth team looking very solid for the NCAA Tournament. They have won 5 in a row and 14 of their last 16. The Buffaloes’ are, by far, the league’s best offensive team in terms of points. Combine their scoring prowess with a bonafide star in Richard Roby; one of the most experienced teams in the country; and a ridiculously deep bench, and you have a team capable of getting a bid. Their RPI is in the 40s, but they don’t really have a big-time win to hang their hat on.

Other than those four, who are the only true NCAA-worthy teams at this point, there is another group of six teams who have pretty much played themselves out of any sort of NCAA contention. Baylor was obviously out a long time ago, even before the season started. However, they did pick up their first win of the season on Wednesday night against Kansas State. They will pick up another win or two throughout the rest of the season. Oklahoma State is on a four-game losing streak and is only one game out of last place in the conference. A promising 6-1 start has turned into a disappointing 12-9 campaign. Texas A&M had a gaudy but misleading record heading into conference play at 10-0. They have lost 6 of their last 9 and, barring a monumental turnaround, will not make the NCAA Tournament. Missouri was on their way to becoming a bubble team and a nice success story after winning 8 of 10, including a win against Kansas. However, since that win, they have lost four in a row, all by at least 13 points. All the optimism that came with the winning ways is well-gone by now, and Quin Snyder might be on his way out. Texas Tech is 0-4 on the road in the Big 12 and 3-0 at home. Those are not numbers worthy of the NCAA Tournament. They have one away win the entire season—against New Mexico State. I have a feeling that won’t wow the committee, even if the Red Raiders go 6-2 or 7-1 at home in the Big 12. Kansas State was 12-4 and 3-2 in the Big 12 as of last week. They were on a 3-game winning streak and seemed capable of becoming a surprise contender in the Big 12. Since then, they have lost two in a row to the worst team in the conference—Baylor—and a team they had been fighting with for “Big 12 Surprise Team of the Year”—Colorado. Baylor had not been within 18 points of any team up until their win over the Wildcats (minus the A&M game). When you lose a game to a team that had not been remotely close to any team up until that point, you are basically playing yourself out of the NCAA Tournament. Their RPI is in the 70s and their best non-conference win is over a Colorado State team that is 1-7 in the WAC. Not the best resume I’ve seen this season.

That leaves two teams—Iowa State and Nebraska. One of these teams will make a run in February, while the other team will fade into oblivion—or NIT land, whichever you would like to call it. The Cornhuskers were riding high after back-to-back wins over Oklahoma and Kansas State to start the Big 12 season, but then lost three straight. However, wins over lowly Missouri and pitiful Oklahoma State have put them at 4-3 and as the fifth team in the league above .500 in Big 12 play. They are terribly inconsistent, but have solid wins over Marquette and Oklahoma. However, their power numbers are not impressive at all. If Nebraska can go 6-3 the rest of the way, which is very plausible, they will likely get a bid. Iowa State has been a major disappointment, but is still in the thick of things in terms of the NCAA Tournament. They started 10-3, but have dropped 4 of 6 and are now below .500 in the league. One interesting thing about their profile is that 6 of their 7 losses have come at home. The Hilton Coliseum is usually a difficult place to play, but that has not been the case this season. The Cyclones have the best overall resume outside of Oklahoma and Texas, but they need at least a 10-6 Big 12 record to get a bid. Going 7-2 the rest of the way is going to be tough, but if they can even go 6-3 and grab 2 wins in the Big 12 Tournament, they should get in. Wins over Iowa and Northern Iowa will carry some weight with the committee.

The contenders for the league and the NCAA Tournament are pretty much set, while the pretenders are starting to steer themselves clear of the conference race. Only two teams are on the fence still, which is a far cry from what it was two weeks ago. At this point in time, it looks like the top four are going to be involved in Tournament talk down stretch, while the bottom six are going to be discussing NIT travel plans. It might make it less exciting for fans of those teams not making the Big Dance. However, it is going to make it easier for the Selection Committee to breakdown the conference, which in turn will determine how many bids the Big 12 gets. As long as a repeat of the first two weeks doesn’t occur—in which everyone beat everyone—the Big 12 should get 4-5 bids as a result of the recent transformation from a parity-laden conference to one where the haves and have-nots are separated.

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