Chucker's Big 12 Basketball Conference Play Preview

By Big12-Fans Writer Chucker

Feeling run over by the brother-in-law who seems to know everything about Big 12 basketball? Need a quick refresher in how the Big 12 basketball season has been progressing? Want a rundown on the players to watch (and to avoid) in Big 12 play?

Relax, the Big 12 Basketball primer is here for you. In one handy article, you can learn the talking points of Big 12 conference basketball, and be the know-it-all jackass at the next big college basketball party you attend. All you need to do is read on...

Big 12 Pre-conference schedule awards

Player of the Year: Mario Boggan, Oklahoma State
Runners up: Julian Wright (Kansas), Kevin Durant (Texas)

Freshman of the Year: Kevin Durant, Texas
Runners up: Wesley Johnson (Iowa State), Josh Carter (Texas a&m)

Defensive Player of the Year: Marcus Dove, Oklahoma State
Runner up: Mario Chalmers (Kansas)

Newcomer of the Year (transfers only): Stefhon Hannah, Missouri
Runners up: Mike Taylor (Iowa State), Charlie Burgess (Texas Tech)

All Big 12 First Team:
Mario Boggan, Oklahoma State
Julian Wright, Kansas
Kevin Durant, Texas
Jarrius Jackson, Texas Tech
Mario Chalmers, Kansas

All Big 12 Second Team:
Joseph Jones, Texas a&m
Aaron Bruce, Baylor
Aleks Maric, Nebraska
JamesOn Curry, Oklahoma State
Brandon Rush, Kansas

All Big 12 Third Team:
Acie Law, Texas a&m
Cartier Martin, Kansas State
Martin Zeno, Texas Tech
Stefhon Hannah, Missouri
Bill Walker, Kansas State

Deserving consideration: Longar Longar (Oklahoma), Wesley Johnson (Iowa State), Josh Carter (Texas a&m), Curtis Jerrells (Baylor), Richard Roby (Colorado), Austin Johnson (Oklahoma)

Best three point shooter: Matt Lawrence, Missouri

Runners up: Josh Carter (Texas a&m), A.J. Abrams (Texas), JamesOn Curry (Oklahoma State), Jarrius Jackson (Texas Tech)

Most improved players: Byron Eaton (Oklahoma State), Kevin Rogers (Baylor), Longar Longar (Oklahoma)

The D.B. Cooper Club (or, have you seen this guy lately?): Rahshon Clark (Iowa State), Marcus Watkins (Missouri), Alan Voskuil (Texas Tech)

Biggest Surprise Team: Missouri

Biggest Underachieving Team: Colorado

All Big 12 Freshman Team:
Kevin Durant, Texas
Josh Carter, Texas a&m
Wesley Johnson, Iowa State
Bill Walker, Kansas State
Tweety Carter, Baylor

Deserving consideration: Darrell Arthur (Kansas), Damion James (Texas), Ryan Anderson (Nebraska), Corey Johnson (Iowa State), Xavier Silas (Colorado), Obi Muonelo (Oklahoma State)

Big 12 Coach of the Year: Sean Sutton, Oklahoma State

Deserving consideration: Bobby Knight (Texas Tech), Billy Gillespie (Texas a&m)

The Big 12 Conference Whippin' Boy Award: Arkansas (0-3, losses to Missouri, Texas Tech, Texas)

The Missouri Valley Conference Whippin' Boy Award: Iowa State (0-3, beaten by UNI, Drake, and Bradley)

But They Weren't Supposed To Be Any Good:
Missouri's warm up game before the Big 12 opener against Iowa State: Missouri State. Isn't the objective to schedule an easy, confidence boosting game prior to your opener?

The Black Hole Award:
Darrell Arthur of Kansas is averaging 0.2 assists/game, and has a 0.18 assists to turnover ratio, while averaging 21 minutes a game. That's one assist per every 105 minutes of actual playing time.

The Big 12 Conference Schedule Cupcake Award:
By quirk of the unbalanced Big 12 schedule, Kansas gets the top three teams of the Big 12 South (Texas, Texas a&m, Oklahoma State) all at home this year. Combine that with two games each against Colorado, Iowa State, and Missouri, and KU seems to have an easy path to the Big 12 conference championship. The tournament champion might be a better sign of conference strength this year.

The Big 12 North Scheduling Winners vs. Losers:
Actually, Kansas isn't the only team to benefit from the unbalanced scheduling quirk. The unbalanced schedule the Big 12 plays gives three teams in each division (North and South) the same home vs. away draw against the opposing division. That is, three teams in the Big 12 North are lucky enough to get Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas a&m on their home court. Meanwhile, three teams in the Big 12 North get to play at Texas, at Texas a&m, and at Oklahoma State. The three lucky teams: Kansas, Nebraska, and Colorado. The three unlucky teams: Missouri, Iowa State, and Kansas State.

The Injury That Changed The Big 12 Race:
Obi Muonelo out for season with a broken ankle.

Even with KU's obvious conference scheduling advantage, Oklahoma State would have been the favorite to win the Big 12 conference title. Then came the injury to freshman Obi Muonelo, the key reserve from the OSU bench. With his speed, shooting touch, and knack for creating space, he was a perfect fit into the athletic, running attack of the Cowboys. Without him, the Cowboys will have to slow their game down and try to lower the total number of possessions in the game to keep from tiring out or getting in foul trouble. Not the natural game for a team this athletic.

Three of these teams don't belong here:
With the conference strength and RPI down, it's doubtful that six teams will make it to the NCAA tournament, but five teams likely will. Assuming Oklahoma State, Texas a&m, and Kansas are locks, three of these teams won't make the NCAA: Texas, Texas Tech, Nebraska, Kansas State, Baylor. Who will step it up in conference play? With the quality of the Big 12 South and a better non-conference record, a good guess would be Texas and Texas Tech make it. But Bill Walker as the X Factor makes the Wildcats intriguing.

A 2007 Big 12 Conference First:
Texas will lose at Waco.

Projected Big 12 Finish:
1. Kansas 13-3
2. Oklahoma State 12-4
3. Texas a&m 11-5
4. Texas 10-6
5. Texas Tech 9-7
6. Nebraska 9-7
7. Kansas State 8-8
8. Baylor 8-8
9. Missouri 6-10
10 Iowa State 4-12
11 Oklahoma 4-12
12 Colorado 2-14

Big 12 Team breakdowns:

Baylor Bears

This team has been, in many people's estimation, a bit of a disappointment this year. They've got some definite young talent, and maybe the collective Big 12 nation expected them to get better faster than they were capable of. With Henry Dugat, Curtis Jerrells, and Aaron Bruce returning, plus the addition of McDonald's All-American Tweety Carter at guard, they have a team capable of putting up points in a hurry. But they really have only one quality win, over a good Colorado State team in the opener of the pre-season NIT. They've lost the rebounding war this year in each of their losses (as well as against Colorado State), a problem that continues to plague them from last year. They're too reliant on the 3-point game, and need to start pounding the ball inside. With strong inside teams such as Oklahoma State and Texas a&m in the South, its unlikely Baylor can make a run at the title this year. The question is, how much can they improve by the end of the year?

Player to Watch: Curtis Jerrells is a phenomenal athlete that runs hot and cold. When he is hot, he is as good as any wing player in the Big 12.

Conference record projection: 8-8
Post season projection: NIT

Colorado Buffaloes

This team has imploded from last year. Gone are Chris Copeland, Marcus Hall, Martane Freeman, and Andy Osborn, among others. Along with all of their minutes and scoring. The only players left who averaged more than ten minutes a game, (other than Richard Roby) last year are Dominique Coleman and Marcus King-Stockton, both more role players than foundation players. Inbound are eight freshman. But perhaps the biggest story aren't the freshman who made it, but the two they lost over the summer. Dale Vanwright, the best of the freshman recruits, along with Daniel Brown, were both denied admission to CU, leaving Ricardo Patton scrambling to find bodies. Richard Roby, the lone star of the team, numbers are down significantly from last year in several important categories: PPS( 1.25 last year, 1.01 this year), field goal percentage ( 42% last year, 33% this year), three point percentage (36% last year, 24% this year), assists to turnover ratio (1.16 last year,0.67 this year). With role player Dominique Coleman assuming the number two scorer role, this will be a long last year for Ricardo Patton, the last of the Big 8 coaches still remaining.

Player to watch: Xavier Silas has arguably been the best of the freshman eight. New Colorado coach John Doe will undoubtably lose some of these eight players. Should Mr. Doe try to convince the X-man to stay, or start all over?

Conference record projection: 2-14
Post season projection: none

Iowa State Cyclones

Talk about a rough off-season for Cyclone fans. Wayne Morgan was fired. Greg McDermott was hired. Four players transferred. The top two scorers left for the NBA draft (only Will Blalock made it, though). Incoming recruits were lost or asked to leave. And the online equivalent of a shouting match broke out between the three big Cyclone fan websites. When the dust settled, the only impact player remaining was Rahshon Clark. And Clark's game has really floundered in McDermott's system, which emphasizes half-court basketball skills such as ball handling and mid-range spot shooting, two of Rahshon's weaker points. The new look Cyclones sport juco transfer Micheal Taylor as their new leader, a lightning quick guard with a solid, but streaky, shooting touch, and a knack for turning the ball over. But Iowa State's future clearly lies with two freshman forwards: Wesley Johnson and Cory Johnson (no relation), both of which look to be foundation players that the program can build on. As the team learns to play in McDermott's set offense structure, look for them to get better. But this conference season will be a real learning experience, as the small inside game of ISU will be pushed around mightily by the likes of Julian Wright, Aleks Maric, Bill Walker and Mario Boggan.

Player to watch: Wesley Johnson, a freshman wing player from Corsicana, TX, has been a huge find for Greg McDermott. A two-star recruit out of high school, he is leading the team in rebounds, is second in scoring, shoots 35% from the three point line, has a PPS of 1.41, and possesses a 41" vertical leap.

Conference record projection: 4-12
Post season projection: none

Kansas Jayhawks

The team with the most raw talent in the Big 12, this team sports four probable NBA players in Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers, Julian Wright, and Darrell Arthur, and perhaps a fifth NBA player in Sasha Kaun. Still, for all the talent this team possesses, they lack a consistent team game, and too frequently wait for the other player to take over. Regardless, they are the team to beat in the Big 12, and the reason might well be Russell Robinson, the level-headed senior point guard. He's the spoke that holds together the KU wheel, making everyone around him better. Throw in the fortuitous scheduling of a&m, Texas, and (depleted) Oklahoma State in Lawrence this year, and this team must be the favorite to win the Big 12 conference championship.

Player to watch: Mario Chalmers continues to get better and better. He can take over games from the three point line, plays stellar defense, and knows how to set up others. Rush and Wright might become better NBA players, but Chalmers is probably the best college-game player on this team, and a lot of fun to watch in the open court.

Conference record projection: 13-3
Post season projection: NCAA, 3-seed

Kansas State Wildcats

Another team that's been somewhat of a disappointment this year. With the arrival of Bobby Huggins, plus two quality returning players in Cartier Martin and David Hoskins, you'd think they would have played better in their non-conference schedule. But while early losses against California, Colorado State, and New Mexico didn't look too good, the arrival of Bill Walker certainly seems to have turned things around. A convincing win against a quality USC team in Las Vegas, followed by beating New Mexico (in their second game against each other this year) at home, should give Wildcat faithful plenty to hope for. Still, the Big 12 schedule is grueling, and it remains to be seen if Walker has the endurance to make it through 16 games. This team remains an enigma, but a lot of questions will be answered in the first game of the year, at Texas a&m. If Kansas State wins this game, expect a run at an NCAA tournament bid.

Player to Watch: Bill Walker is making an immediate impact since joining the Wildcats in December. With a PPS of 1.23, and 14 points per game, he should open the floor more for Cartier Martin to do damage from the outside.

Conference record projection: 8-8
Post season projection: NIT

Missouri Tigers

Missouri fans have to be wishing that Thomas Gardner would have stuck around, instead of trying his (ill-fated) luck in the NBA draft. Put him on this team, and Missouri becomes an NCAA contender almost immediately. Then again, with Gardner, juco phenom Stefhon Hannah might not be in Columbia, but Manhattan (he verbally committed to Kansas State before reneging and signing with Mizzou) instead. New coach Mike Anderson has shook things up in Columbia, with a new-look pressing defense and an emphasis on the transition game. Stefhon Hannah has become the focal point of the offense, while Matt Lawrence has become a 3-point deadeye, perhaps the best in the league. But the real question is what do the Tigers have after these two, which hasn't been much. Kalen Grimes and Marshall Brown, the inside presence of the team, aren't even averaging 10 rebounds per game, between the two of them. The relative inexperience of many North teams (Colorado and Iowa State come to mind) should help the Tigers, but more experienced teams will beat the press and limit transition points for the Tigers. Like Iowa State, this team really lacks the size and inside talent to push it to the next level this year.

Player to Watch: Matt Lawrence is a gifted pure shooter who can change games in a hurry. He'll force bigger players out to the perimeter to guard him, opening up the driving lanes for Stefhon.

Conference record projection: 6-10
Post season projection: None

Nebraska Cornhuskers

A pre-conference win against (then) ranked Creighton gave Nebraska fans hope that this would be the season to break free in basketball. Doc Sadler, the last of the six new coaches in the Big 12, has energized the fan base. But look beneath the surface, and some of the same problems still exist. Aleks Maric still spends too much time on the perimeter and not enough down low. While freshman Ryan Anderson has emerged as a playmaker, there still aren't enough options at the end of the bench. And whether this team can play Sadler's athletic, uptempo game against the Big 12 remains to be seen. Still, Nebraska plays in the North, where the competition will be less than overwhelming. And like Kansas, they've got Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas a&m at home this year, which can't hurt.

Player to Watch: Freshman Ryan Anderson is a star in the making for Nebraska. Can he keep it up over the Big 12 conference season, or will he hit the conditioning wall?

Conference record projection: 9-7
Post season projection: NIT

Oklahoma Sooners

What a difference one season makes. Losing a low-post combo game like that of Taj Gray and Kevin Bookout has changed the face of this team. Throw in the defection of Kelvin Sampson to Indiana, the loss of recruit Damion James to Texas, and this team is a reconstruction work in progress. There are some positive signs, though. Longar Longar might be the most improved player in the Big 12 (now if he could only shoot free throws), and leads the Sooners in scoring average, rebounding, and blocked shots. Oklahoma has quality supporting players in Michael Neal, Austin Johnson, and David Godbold, but lacks the take-over-the-game personalities of Gray, Bookout, or Terrell Everett. Learning a new system, and with largely supporting role players ( wouldn't transfers Drew Lavender or Lawrence McKenzie really help now?), plus playing in the powerful Big 12 South conference will prove to be a tough assignment for the Sooners this year.

Player to Watch: Austin Johnson is a dynamic point guard. He's a solid ball handler with good outside shooting skills, has a knack for setting up his teammates, and is money from the free throw line. His assist numbers would be higher if Oklahoma was a better perimeter shooting team.

Conference record projection: 4-12
Post season projection: none

Oklahoma State Cowboys

The snap you heard wasn't just Obi Muonelo's ankle, it was the collective heartbreak of the Oklahoma State Cowboy nation. With Obi, this team was gearing up for a conference championship. Without Obi, the bench is looking thin and bare. Oklahoma State is an athletic, attacking team that needs the scoring from the bench to keep the aggresive gameplan moving. Now, OSU might soon find out that the best way to win is by limiting the number of possessions in the game, to keep its starters on the floor longer and limit the foul issues. The good news is that Oklahoma State clearly has the talent to win the Big 12. Mario Boggan is the favorite win Big 12 player of the year, entering conference play. Byron Eaton, the enigmatic freshman point guard of 2005-06, has turned into the disciplined floor leader of 2006-07. JamesOn Curry can light it up from three-point range. Now can Sean Sutton find a way to turn this talented, athletic team into a talented half court team? A huge showdown in Lawrence in the first week of the Big 12 conference season, January 10th, might tell the outcome of the league.

Player to Watch: Marcus Dove probably won't win the media's Big 12 defensive player of the year award, it usually goes to flashy players who get a lot of steals, and look good on the stat page (read: Mario Chalmers). But he's the league's best shut down defender, and can guard perimeter or post players with equal tenacity. And he's there to chase down the loose ball and get the big rebound when OSU needs it most. The poster child for the type of player that does the little things well.

Conference record projection: 12-4
Post season projection: NCAA, 3-seed

Texas Longhorns

Can a team that doesn't return a starter, and has only one player that saw significant minutes last year, A.J. Abrams, win the conference? That's a question most people would answer no to. Texas picked up a couple of big freshman, though, which might have set the expectation bar too high for this team. The Longhorns top six players, in terms of minutes and points, are either freshman or sophomores. The team is led by freshman Kevin Durant, almost certainly gone after his freshman year to the NBA, a shorter, better shooting version of Kevin Garnett. And A.J Abrams can light it up from the three point line. But the dirty little secret about Texas is that they don't have much size in the low post, and will get pushed around and tired out easily. This team seems to lose energy in the second half of the big games they've played this year. Of their three non-conference losses, they led two at halftime. They led Tennessee by 15 at half and lost, led Michigan State by 4 at half and lost. A very talented, but raw team, Texas needs another year of college-ball conditioning, and one more post player, to win the Big 12.

Player to Watch: Kevin Durant is simply a basketball freak of nature. Tremendous length, a great mid-range and outside shooter, and a solid defensive player. Watch him while you can, he'll be one of the first five players taken in the 2007 NBA draft.

Conference record projection: 10-6
Post season projection: NCAA, 8-seed

Texas A&M Aggies

Call Billy Gillespie the magic man. Since coming to College Station, he has taken a program no one would touch and made it special. Start with Acie Law IV and Joesph Jones. Every team needs an inside/outside punch, and Law/Jones is right up there, if not better than, with Chalmers/Wright and Curry/Boggan. Add the dynamic freshman Josh Carter, averaging 12 points per game and an a very respectable 1.59 PPS, and you've got a great three-headed attack. But what might be the most amazing about this team is the quality of the game they play, from top to bottom. Start with assist to turnover ratio. Every starter is above 1.0, except Jones, who is 0.83. Kirk is 2.3, Law is 1.9, Kavaliauskas is 1.4, Carter is 2.9. As a team, they are 1.58, a team number that is next to unbelievable. The next closest team is Texas Tech, at 1.24. Texas a&m also leads the league in field goal percentage, defensive field percentage, defensive three-point field percentage, and assists, and is second in free throw percentage. This is a team, pure and simple, and they will be tough to handle come March.

Player to Watch: Antanas Kavaliauskas PPS has been consistent from last year to this year, at about 1.43. But what has changed are his points per game, 12.3, which has doubled from last year, and his assists per game, which have gone from 1.0/game to 1.8 per game. Antanas does the little things that makes a team great.

Conference record projection: 11-5
Post season projection: NCAA 4-seed

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Comparing Texas Tech's first games of the year, with the way they are playing entering the conference, and you'll see a nice improvement. But then again, try finding a Bobby Knight coached team that didn't improve from its first game to its tenth. This team has come a long way since the early season losses to Marquette and Air Force. They thoroughly dismantled Arkansas in Little Rock, and have won four road games already this season (Arkansas, La Tech, TCU, UTEP), while playing seven games on the road. Jarrius Jackson and undersized Martin Zeno carry this team, and are getting some timely contributions from Darryl Dora. Charlie Burgess, a juco transfer from Western Juco, has been streaky, and will need to put up better numbers if Texas Tech will compete in the Big 12 South. Texas Tech's biggest trouble will be playing athletic low post teams like Oklahoma State, where their size won't match up well. Still, Jackson, Zeno, Burgess, and Dora are all excellent shooters, which will keep Texas Tech in most games this year.

Player to Watch: Charlie Burgess was the player of the year in the Western Junior Athletic Conference last year. He's been streaky this year, but could be the third option that Texas Tech needs to differentiate itself from the rest of the mid-level contenders in the Big 12.

Conference record projection: 9-7
Post season projection: NCAA, 11-seed